June 19, 2020 – Avoidthemark.com
An insurgency is an organized rebellion aimed at overthrowing a government through the use of subversion and violence. The objective of most insurgent groups is to control a particular area or country, which differs from that of terrorists, who don’t look to form an alt Gov’t.
Insurgencies typically begin before it is recognized by the government in power. It is by no means an instantaneous movement.
Insurgent leaders learn about local issues, and then teach communities to blame those issues on a particular class and the government.
Over time this builds an anti-gov’t sentiment that insurgents use to fuel rebellion. However, grievances alone are not enough to spark an uprising.
Insurgents must find a compelling issue, around an injustice, it can use to create a narrative to justify its use of violence.
When a narrative is linked to grievances related to a particular ethnic or religious group, it is politically and socially persuasive.
Insurgencies have always been a tool for regime change and capitulation. Three conditions must be present for an insurgency to be successful.
A. Vulnerable population – the federal and local governments’ inability to provide security for property, and it’s people. Insurgencies grow in areas where police are reluctant to patrol, giving the Insurgents freedom to become tactically and operationally more effective.
B. Leadership available for direction – A leader that can shape, mold, and direct the frustration of the population.
C. Lack of Government – Failures of gov’t to provide basic services, such as health care, justice, education, a stable economy.
Moreover, when these three things exist simultaneously, an insurgency can operate in the open. The use of kidnappings, extortion, assassinations, and other forms of terrorism to advance political agendas become common.
Elements of insurgency
There are five elements of insurgency—leaders, guerrillas, political cadres, auxiliaries, and supporters.
1. Insurgencies are often headed by leaders who are charismatic, rank high in public esteem, and posses a relatable personality.
The charisma of insurgent leaders can be more appealing than the ideology in convincing others to join. Leaders provide strategic direction and are responsible for developing the insurgency narrative to mobilize individuals into an adequate force for armed political action.
2. Guerrillas are the forces who do the actual fighting for the insurgency. This can include unemployed youth getting paid to conduct acts of terror to the criminal gang leader exploiting a state of lawlessness.
Members can include people seeking an escape from boredom.
3. Political Cadres – These are people in positions of power that are at best, sympathizers of the movement or, at worst, members of the insurgency. They do not report insurgents to counterinsurgent forces, usually out of sympathy for the cause, and anti-government sentiment.
Political Comrades work to implement policies provided by the insurgency leader. They often continue in their regular position in society, but lead a second, secret, lives for the cause of the insurgency.
4. Auxiliaries are active sympathizers who provide essential logistical support such as funding, communication, transport, supplies, weapons, early warning, housing, creation, and spreading of propaganda. Still, they do not directly participate in combat operations.
5. Mass Base – The following of the movement, the people who mindlessly repeat and disseminate propaganda the other elements have fed them. This is the neighbor down the street who watches mainstream media and believes the narrative.
Insurgent groups can organize dozens of front organizations, in such a way, that seemingly independent entities are simultaneously advocating the same things.
This is done to give the impression that the cause has the support of the majority and to force widespread compliance.
An effective insurgency can be waged w/ the support of only a few individuals, but require the inaction and compliance of a majority of the population.
Shunning and shaming are used to apply pressure to individuals not participating in the insurgency.
As I mentioned earlier, a defining event is needed before an Insurgency can begin to operate in the open and rationalize the use of violence.
It is my belief that this is actually the second attempt at a rebellion. The Jussie Smollet hoax may have been the first attempt at an organized uprising to pressure Trump out of office.
Remember the people who came to Jussie’s defense? From Michelle Obama’s chief of staff to Hollywood celebrities jumping on social media to express their outrage about racism and America.
What about the Kamala Harris anti-lynching bill that just happened to be making its way through the Senate at the time?
Or Booker and Harris tweeting that it was a modern-day lynching before an investigation even started.
Where would the country be if Jussie got away with it?
As I stated before, due to its political nature, an insurgency cannot be defeated by the military alone. A citizen element is needed to go along with the COIN operation—people willing to take risks.
Furthermore, the President will never directly call or tweet for his supporters to get involved in COIN operations. It would be counterproductive and displays weakness, which may help rally support for the insurgency both locally and internationally.
It’s is my belief that POTUS did make the suggestion, but nobody caught it.
Judging from recent activities, I’m reasonably confident that a Counterinsurgency operation (COIN) is underway. All COIN operations are handled by the Joint Chief of Staff.
Some may think of it as just a rally, but in a COIN operation, a rally is a display of mass support for the government—in this case, the President.
These types of visuals trigger cognitive dissonance in the minds of the insurgents and their supporters, which can lay the groundwork for defection within the movement.
Defections are common during an insurgency.
This is also true for government officials, as well as military commanders. As victory seems more probable, previously neutral elements, fearful of being trapped on the wrong side, begin to support the opposition.
I’m not going to question James Mattis’ motives, but I do find it interesting that his resignation came on the same day Kamala Harris and Jussie Smollet began communication to set up their hoax.
We need to begin asking what is James Mattis’ role in the insurgency?
It’s important to view BLM/Antifa as groups of the insurgency. The killing in Minneapolis provided the opportunity they needed to justify their demands.
As the Government begins to address the core grievances, look for the insurgency to ramp up the attacks, as they always do.