May 22, 2020 – Avoidthemark.com
1:43 pm CST
The CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response have just crafted Pandemic Planning Scenarios that “are designed to help inform decisions by modelers and public health officials who utilize mathematical modeling.”
One of these scenarios, dubbed Scenario 5, “represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States.”
It includes a guesstimate about what percentage of those in your age group will die from COVID-19.
- If you are 65 and older: The CDC says 1.3% of those your age range who are symptomatic could die if they get coronavirus.
- Of those aged 50-64, 0.2% could pass away.
- If you are 49 and under: The CDC says that 0.05% of symptomatic people in your demographic could die.
They also estimate that 0.4% of people who have COVID-19 symptoms could die.
What Does This Mean for You?
There are some caveats from the CDC.
“The parameter values will change as more data become available,” says the agency.
- Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning
- Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19
- Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.”
Yet, since they are scenarios that are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning, “it’s best to assume they are correct as you judge how to move throughout your day. The best-case scenario is that you can personally help lower the fatality rate.”